December 2019

We expect global growth to rebound in 2020, the US consumer to remain strong, and the Federal Reserve not to raise rates before 2020 elections. Read more

October 2019

Our review of asset class performance shows continued leadership of US stocks over international, strength in “defense” asset classes and sectors, and more weakness in the stocks of small companies. Read more

September 2019

Despite the uncertainty we’ve witnessed, the macrocast™ score is not deteriorating. The model continues to suggest a low probability of recession and/or major bear market in the near term. Read more

August 2019

The latest macrocast™ score remains at a level that suggests a low risk of both a recession and major bear market. Read more

July 2019

macrocast™ continues. To indicate a low probability of a sustained, recessionary bear market. Read more

June 2019

The Federal Reserve is expected to signal a willingness to cut interest rates. Read more

May 2019

The macrocast™ score continues to suggest low risk of both a recession and major bear market. Read more

April 2019

The rebound in the macrocast™ score is led by improvements in our Technical indicators, while the Valuation category is a headwind. Read more

February 2019

While the risks of a recessionary market are rising, they are increasing from a very low probability point. Read more

January 2019

2018 Year in Review. The market remains volatile, but macrocast™ continues to indicate a low probability of a sustained, recessionary bear market. Read more